SHFE copper fluctuated after the holiday, while aluminum weakened due to alumina hitting a new low [[Institution Comment]]

Published: May 6, 2025 18:38

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[Futures Market] On the first trading day after the Labour Day holiday, SHFE copper futures exhibited volatility throughout the day, with the most-traded contract fluctuating between 77,000 and 78,000, ultimately closing at 77,600, up 0.06%. Total trading volume decreased slightly, while total open interest increased by over 6,000 lots. SHFE aluminum futures jumped initially and then pulled back, with alumina futures hitting a new low during the session. The most-traded June contract closed at 19,785, down 1%. Total trading volume increased slightly, while total open interest decreased slightly. The most-traded September alumina futures contract closed at 2,675, down 1.94%.

[Analysis] SHFE copper futures continued to exhibit volatility. The gap down on April 7 continued to exert pressure on the futures market. Aluminum futures were weighed down by alumina, and the overall non-ferrous metals futures market remained bearish. Currently, on the macro front, the aftermath of the tariff war initiated by the US has not yet subsided, and the market is also awaiting guidance from domestic macro policies. Maintain a wait-and-see approach.

[Valuation] Copper is slightly overvalued, while aluminum is fairly valued.

[Risks] External risks.

(Source: China Fortune Futures)

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